Is It a Good Time to Buy a House in Houston? Fall 2026 Data

Market Updates

By Eddie Weir, REALTOR® with REMAX Signature  |  Last reviewed October 2, 2026

I’m Eddie Weir, a REALTOR® with REMAX Signature in Greater Houston, and this is the question I hear most from buyers this fall. I answered it with the sales themselves: every residential sale that closed in Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery and Brazoria counties in August and September 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. The source is Houston Association of REALTORS® MLS data, and every figure below carries the month it describes.

What do Houston prices and sales look like right now?

Flat to slightly lower prices, and fewer closings than a year ago. The median sold price was $325,000 in August 2026 against $335,000 in August 2025, a drop of 3.0%. September was $325,000 both years. Price per square foot slipped about 2% in both months. August closings were 10.4% below August 2025. September looks weaker still, but it is preliminary, because late closings keep being entered after month-end, so I lean on August for volume.

For a longer look at the year so far, my mid-2026 market read and the Houston housing market hub have the earlier months. This post is the shorter question: what do the latest numbers mean for someone deciding this fall?

Do buyers have room to negotiate?

Some, but not more than last year. The typical sale closed at 96.1% of its original list price in August, which is a smaller discount than the 95.2% a year earlier. Between 44% and 46% of homes cut their list price before they sold in August and September, and 63% to 64% closed below their final list price, down from about 68% a year ago. Put together, the negotiating happens mostly through list-price cuts before the contract, then through smaller concessions after it. My August price-cuts post looked at the same pattern from the active-listing side.

Is there enough to choose from?

Yes, roughly six months’ worth. On October 2, 2026 there were 35,074 active residential listings across the four counties. Divide that by August’s 6,023 closings and you get 5.8 months of supply; divide by September’s preliminary 5,229 and you get 6.7. A common rule of thumb treats about six months as a balanced market, and that is where Houston sits: neither the scramble of a tight market nor the glut of a loose one.

Who does this market favor?

Preparation, more than either side. A buyer with financing lined up, a clear monthly budget and a few years’ horizon has time to compare homes and the leverage that comes with a market where nearly half of sellers have already cut their price. A seller who prices to the market still finds a buyer; the average home that sold took 49 days to reach an offer in August, about the same as the 48 days a year earlier.

The buyer waiting for a crash is the one the data doesn’t support. Nothing here shows prices dropping, and the September median matched last year. Waiting has a cost too, because you keep paying rent or carrying your current home while you wait. It doesn’t show prices running away either, which is why I tell buyers there is no reason to rush a decision that isn’t ready.

What should I watch before I decide?

Five things the closing data can’t tell you.

1. Your monthly payment. Mortgage rates move daily and aren’t MLS data, so I left them out of the table. Ask a lender for a current quote, and read how Houston’s rate spread works and how preapproval works.

2. Insurance and taxes. These can move a payment as much as a price change does. Why Houston home insurance costs what it does and the MUD tax guide explain what to ask about.

3. Closings. August closed 10.4% fewer sales than a year earlier. If that gap holds, watch whether more sellers cut their prices or offer credits.

4. Your price range and area. These are four-county medians. A zip code or a price band can run warmer or cooler than the whole.

5. Flood and drainage. A good price doesn’t answer a flood question. Start with the Houston flood-zone buyer guide.

How would I advise a buyer this fall?

Here is the order I would work in if you sat across from me:

1. Get preapproved and decide the monthly payment you are comfortable with, insurance and taxes included, before you tour.

2. Plan to hold the home for several years. Buy for the life you expect to have, not for a guess about the next six months.

3. Negotiate past the price. Seller credits, repairs, the closing date and the option-period inspection are all open to discussion. How the option period works is worth reading first.

4. Look closely at homes that have already cut their price, and check that the new price matches the condition and the nearby sales.

5. Plan the sequence if you own a home. Selling first, buying first and overlapping each carry different risks, which is what the sell-and-buy page above covers.

The bottom line

Houston’s closed sales show a market that is steady rather than hot or cold: a $325,000 median that is flat to slightly lower than last year, about six months of supply, and negotiating room that is real but no larger than a year ago. If you are ready, nothing in the data says to wait. If you aren’t, the data won’t punish you for taking the time to be.